2026Journal articleFree to read
Lina Ingstrand
Lund University Publications Student Papers (Lund University)
This study aims to investigate how social media trends affect international trade through a study on the relationship between the global matcha tea trend and Japanese green tea exports. The study is performed in two steps, due to limitations in social media data access. Firstly, a time-series regression is used to analyse the relationship between global TikTok views and Google search intensity for matcha, finding a strong and economically meaningful positive association. Secondly, a gravity model of Japanese green tea exports to 148 countries over the period 2010-2025 is estimated using Google search intensity as a proxy for the social media trend. The regression is estimated with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator as well as importer and year-month fixed effects. The results from the preferred gravity specification do not show a statistically significant relationship between Google search intensity and exports. However, alternative specifications with less fixed effects reveal a positive association with statistical significance, suggesting that the matcha trend operates primarily as a global demand shifter rather than through importer-specific demand responses. The research performed and the model applied are new additions to literature on international economics, and the results highlight the relevance of future research with improved models to increase the understanding of social media trends’ effects on trade flows.
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Lina Ingstrand. (2026). The Relationship Between Social Media Trends and Trade Flows: Analysing the Global Matcha Trend. Lund University Publications Student Papers (Lund University).
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